198 
ACUS3 KMKC 021937
SWOMCD
MKC MCD 021935
PAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-022200-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535 FOR WESTERN NY/WRN AND CNTRL PA/NRN
WV/WESTERN MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

LATEST RADAR DATA INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO INTO NRN OH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THESE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH IS MOVING SEWD TOWARD THIS AREA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF
EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON INTO ERN KY WITH
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS E OF THIS BOUNDARY.  SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES WERE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG ACROSS OH.  USING ELY/SELY STORM
MOVEMENT WITH VWP FROM KCLE YIELDS STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
TO 300 M2/S2.     

WITH DYNAMIC FORCING BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THIS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...BELIEVE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/
DEVELOP.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..HOVIS.. 06/02/98

...PLEASE SEE WWW.NSSL.NOAA.GOV/SPC FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...